Inside Sabalenka’s sneaky Grand Slam consistency

The top two seeds in the top half of the draw, World No.1 Iga Swiatek and No.3 Coco Gauff, booked their spots in the Roland Garros semifinals. Can No.2 Aryna Sabalenka and No.4 Elena Rybakina join them?

Roland Garros: Scores | Draws

If so, it will be the first time in over 20 years that the Top 4 seeds survive to the semifinals at Roland Garros. The last time it happened in Paris was 1992 — No.1 Monica Seles, No.2 Stefanie Graf, No.3 Gabriela Sabatini, No.4 Arantxa Sanchez Vicario. In a No.1 vs. No.2 final, Seles took the title over Graf.

The last time it happened at any Slam was at 2009 Wimbledon — No.1 Dinara Safina, No.2 Serena Williams, No.3 Venus Williams, No.4 Elena Dementieva. Serena bested Venus in an all-Williams final there.

Can Mirra Andreeva and Jasmine Paolini pull off the upsets? Here’s how Wednesday’s final round of quarterfinals stacks up:

Mirra Andreeva vs. [2] Aryna Sabalenka

Head-to-head: Sabalenka leads 2-0

Much like 20-year-old Coco Gauff, 17-year-old Mirra Andreeva has become so reliable in her tournament-by-tournament progression that we’re already taking her for granted. In just her second main-draw appearance at Roland Garros, she became the youngest player since Anna Kournikova to make the fourth round on all three Slam surfaces. And with her win over Varvara Gracheva, she became the youngest French Open quarterfinalist since Sesil Karatantcheva.

It’s a great pair of milestones for Andreeva, who is finding great success with Conchita Martinez. Under Martinez, Andreeva made her first WTA 1000 quarterfinal in Madrid as well.

Who ended Andreeva’s run in Madrid? Sabalenka. The World No.2 has dominated both their meetings, both on the clay in Madrid. Because as good as Andreeva is, she remains — as with most players on the Hologic WTA Tour — underpowered vis a vis Sabalenka. In particular, her serve has been a difficult shot to protect against Sabalenka’s roaring return game.

“After winning a Grand Slam, you know that your whole life you’ve been doing the right thing,” Sabalenka said. “Everything you’ve been doing, everything you’ve been struggling with it was for a reason.

“When you finally get there, to your goal, it actually gives you so much confidence in yourself and so much belief that no matter what, no matter how tough the situations you’re going to face in life, you know that you’re going to get through it and that you’re going to get back on top and that you’re going to get to your goals.”

Over the last two years, no one has been as consistent at the Slams as Sabalenka. The two-time Australian Open champion is an outstanding 8-0 in Grand Slam quarterfinals and is looking to extend her streak of consecutive Slam semifinals to seven. She hasn’t lost before the semifinal stage at a major since 2022 Roland Garros.

And she’s currently in the midst of the finest clay-court season of her career. She has not lost to a player ranked outside the Top 10 on clay this year, with two of her three losses coming to Iga Swiatek.

[12] Jasmine Paolini vs. [4] Elena Rybakina

Head-to-head: Rybakina leads 2-1

Rybakina knows how tough Paolini can be on clay. The two battled it out at the start of the clay season, in the Porsche Tennis Grand Prix quarterfinals. Rybakina won 6-3, 5-7, 6-3 en route to the title.

“She’s moving well,” Rybakina said. “She’s also hitting the ball quite heavy. So it’s going to be a lot about of course my footwork. I will try to focus on myself.”

Focusing on herself has been the key for Rybakina so far in Paris, where she is looking to make her first semifinal. After a strong start to the clay season, where she won Stuttgart and made the semifinals of Madrid, Rybakina withdrew from Rome due to illness. She’s still trying to recover what she lost.

“Well, for now I think I’m playing really good,’ Rybakina said. “I was struggling with sleep, some health issues. I think still in the past few weeks I lost a little bit physique, lost a bit of weight.

“But more or less I’m confident and feeling great and happy that I was managing to finish the matches in two sets.”

Paolini’s breakthrough season has continued in Paris, where she is into her first Grand Slam quarterfinal and knocking on the door of a Top 10 debut. The 28-year-old won the biggest title of her career in February at the Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships and she goes into her rematch with Rybakina full of belief.

“I played some big matches last year with few top players, and I think that helped me to have more confidence in myself,” Paolini said. “I step on court and I say, okay, it’s tough, but I have a chance. Before it was, like, I cannot win these matches. I have to, I don’t know, do a miracle.

“But now I step on court, and I say, okay, I can have my chance. I have to play well, of course, but I have chances.”