Will Sabalenka maintain her mastery over Zheng?

RIYADH — The WTA Finals Riyadh will kick off with a bang on Day 1, where two of the hottest players coming into the tournament will face off to open round-robin play in the Purple Group.

WTA Finals Riyadh: Scores | Schedule | Standings

In a rematch of the last WTA 1000 final of the season, World No.1 Aryna Sabalenka will take on No.7 Zheng Qinwen for the third time this season. The second singles match will feature No.4 Jasmine Paolini taking on a returning No.5 Elena Rybakina, a rematch of the Roland Garros quarterfinals.

Zheng, 23, is making her tournament debut and is straight off the heels of a title run at the Toray Pan Pacific Open. Her Tokyo title capped off a remarkable Asian swing for Zheng, who made her first WTA 1000 semifinal at the China Open and first WTA 1000 final at the Dongfeng Voyah Wuhan Open.

Can the Olympic champion keep up her momentum? If there’s one thing this season has taught Zheng, it’s that momentum does not maintain itself.

“I think the biggest lesson I learn from this season is never let yourself going down, even you make a great result,” Zheng told reporters at Media Day on Friday. “It’s so, so difficult to win the respect of the players, but so easy to lose it. Maybe one, two, three tournaments you let yourself down, you don’t play serious, then suddenly all the respect is gone.

“I learned, even [if I] have a great tournament, I need to maintain the level if I go. If not, it’s better you don’t stand on the court.”

Day 1 schedule

3:30 p.m. local time
[3] Su-Wei Hsieh (TPE) & Elise Mertens (BEL) vs. [6] Nicole Melichar-Martinez (USA) & Ellen Perez (AUS)

Not Before 6 p.m.
[1] Aryna Sabalenka vs. [7] Qinwen Zheng (CHN)
Followed by:
[4] Jasmine Paolini (ITA) vs. [5] Elena Rybakina (KAZ)
Followed by:
[1] Lyudmyla Kichenok (UKR) & Jelena Ostapenko (LAT) vs. [8] Katerina Siniakova (CZE) & Taylor Townsend (USA)

Breaking down the Day 1 action in the Purple Group:

[1] Aryna Sabalenka vs. [7] Qinwen Zheng

This season:
US Open quarterfinal, Sabalenka d. Zheng, 6-1, 6-2
Wuhan final, Sabalenka d. Zheng, 6-3. 5-7, 6-3

You have to give Chinese tennis fans a lot of credit: they have a nickname for everyone. During this year’s Asian swing, Sabalenka was told by an interviewer that, in addition to “Daughter of China”, Chinese fans have given her the nickname “the mountain that Zheng Qinwen has yet to overcome”. Sabalenka was more than happy to keep that moniker for as long as possible.

Sabalenka routed Zheng in their first three career meetings, but the Chinese No.1 made inroads in their last match, a dramatic three-set battle in her hometown of Wuhan. Sabalenka came out on top thanks to a superior serving performance down the stretch.

But the courts at King Saud University are playing much faster than in China. That could help Zheng if she can serve over 60 percent of her first serves in. She comes into her WTA Finals debut leading the tour in aces this season and leads the field in first-serve points won at 75.9 percent. But if Zheng’s first-serve percentage stays around 50 percent, it could be one-way traffic for the World No.1.

[4] Jasmine Paolini vs. [5] Elena Rybakina

This season:
Stuttgart quarterfinal: Rybakina d. Paolini, 6-3, 5-7, 6-3
Roland Garros quarterfinal, Paolini d. Rybakina 6-2, 4-6, 6-2

Paolini and Rybakina played two riveting three-setters on the clay earlier this spring, splitting both meetings. The match-up is the quintessential contrast of styles, with Paolini’s grinding baseline game and dangerous forehand pitted against Rybakina’s big serve and first-strike tennis.

“The challenge going to be to return to her serve here, as always,” Paolini laughed. “Here especially.”

“I don’t really know what to expect. I think it’s going to be a tough match, of course. I have to play deep, trying to serve well because I think she’s going to play aggressive, of course. She’s a big server.”

Given recent form, the edge lies with the Italian. Paolini has been an absolute workhorse through her breakout season, playing a combined 95 matches in doubles and singles this year. Her last result of the regular season came in Wuhan, where she made the quarterfinals before losing to Zheng.

In contrast, Rybakina has not played since the US Open, opting to rest her body after a series of injuries and health issues. But these quick courts will favor the bigger servers, and if Rybakina has her unreadable first-serve going, Paolini’s chances of breaking will fall dramatically.