Why is Alcaraz and Sinner’s second serve so dangerous? | ATP Tour

Beyond numbers

Why is Alcaraz and Sinner’s second serve so dangerous?

Although they have a different approach, they both find success

August 07, 2024

Second serves are an underrated weapon.

The ATP Tour averages 51% of points won on the second serve. Only by looking at the top of the PIF ATP Rankings do the numbers stand out in this key metric.

An Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers analysis of World No. 1 Jannik Sinner and World No. 3 Carlos Alcaraz reveals how they manage to differentiate themselves from their opponents on the second serve. The data is based on a minimum of 80 matches for each player over the past three seasons.

Points Won With Second Serve
• Sinner = 54%
• Alcaraz = 55%

Sinner and Alcaraz are only three or four percentage points above the 51% average, but it is enough to make a vital difference in their careers. The fascinating thing about Sinner and Alcaraz is that they have improved their second serve points won average in completely different ways.

Direction of Second Serve in Deuce Box

Sinner
• Open = 19%
• Body = 44%
• T = 37%

Sinner’s main target is the opponent’s body, with 44%. Most of these serves are directed at the backhand body, although a significant number also test the opponent’s forehand body.

Alcaraz
• Open = 14%
• Body = 27%
• T = 59%

Alcaraz employs a different strategy by placing almost six out of 10 second serves on the T, looking for the backhand of right-handed returners, forcing them to move laterally towards the ball. On the other hand, Sinner’s second serve over the body seeks to force the returner away from the ball.

Direction of Second Serve in Advantage Box

Sinner
• Open = 19%
• Body = 63%
• T = 18%

As in the equals box, Sinner prefers to go straight to the body, throwing nearly two out of three serves (63%) that way. The big advantage of this setup is that Sinner doesn’t have to worry about the sideline or center of the service box.

Alcaraz
• Open = 49%
• Body = 38%
• T = 13%

Alcaraz hits more than twice as many (49% to 19%) second serves open in the ad court compared to Sinner. The Spaniard prefers to go for a shot that pushes his opponent off the court. Alcaraz’s key in the ad courts and doubles is to put the ball high on his backhand, while Sinner immediately fires over his opponent and gets bad returns.

Unreturned Second Serves

In the draw, both players get the highest number of unreturned second serves when they go for the right-handers’ forehand on return. Alcaraz raises the number of unreturned serves from that point to 26%, compared to Sinner’s 24%.

That dynamic continues in the ad court, where both players force more unforced errors on their second serve down the T on the forehand side. Alcaraz boasts a valuable 29% of unreturned serves on the T in the ad court, compared to Sinner’s 21%.

Percentage Won with Second Serves

Alcaraz has won 66% of second serve points in the ad court, while Sinner has increased his success rate with open serves in the ad court to 62%. In all six locations between the ad and ad courts, Sinner and Alcaraz have remained above the 50% threshold.

Sinner and Alcaraz shine on their second serves. It is fascinating to see the different paths they have mastered in their rise to the top of the sport.