Swiatek meets Navarro for spot in the semifinals

MELBOURNE — We’re down to the four remaining players in the bottom half of the women’s draw at the Australian Open. World No.1 Iga Swiatek, the favorite among the remaining players, is looking for her first final in Melbourne, while Madison Keys, Elina Svitolina and Emma Navarro each look to seize their own moment in the spotlight.

Here’s a breakdown of Wednesday’s (Tuesday evening in the U.S.) two quarterfinal matchups:

[1] Each Swiatek vs. [8] Emma Navarro

Head-to-head: Swiatek leads 1-0

Swiatek snapshot

Ranking: No.2
Best Grand Slam result: Five-time champion (2020 Roland Garros, 2022 Roland Garros, 2022 US Open, 2023 Roland Garros, 2024 Roland Garros)
Best Australian Open result: Semifinal (2022)

With a chance to leave Melbourne Park with the World No.1 ranking, Swiatek has dropped only 11 games across four matches. It’s a particularly impressive run considering seven of those came in her first round against Katerina Siniakova. She’s averaging just 67 minutes on court.

But the most notable thing about Swiatek’s fortnight so far has been the air of calmness and joy. The tension that derailed her in the past has subsided. She opened the tournament joking about her three-peat of third-round appearances here. Now she’s a win away from making her third hard-court Slam semifinal and second at Melbourne Park.

No.1 scenario: If Sabalenka falls before the semifinals, Swiatek will retake the No.1 ranking. If Swiatek reaches the semifinals, then Sabalenka must reach the final for a chance to hold on. Should Swiatek and Sabalenka meet in the final, the winner would leave Australia with the No.1 ranking.

Standout stat: Swiatek, 23, is the youngest player to make 10 Grand Slam quarterfinals since Svetlana Kuznetsova at the 2009 Australian Open.

Expect the unexpected: “I don’t know what I’m expecting. We kind of played in 2018, but I’m not going to count this. For sure, I have to treat Emma as a player that I never played, because we both made huge progress since that time that we faced each other.

“Her journey has been pretty nice and amazing. I saw the US Open matches. She played really well, fighting for every point and everything.”

Navarro snapshot

Ranking: No.8
Best Grand Slam result: Semifinalist (2024 US Open)
Best Australian Open result: Quarterfinal (2025)

When Swiatek and Navarro face off on Wednesday, it will be a matchup between the player with the fewest games lost and least amount of court time versus the player with the most. The 23-year-old American has advanced to her third consecutive Grand Slam quarterfinal by winning four three-set matches. She trailed Peyton Stearns 5-3 in the third set before rebounding to win in 3 hours and 20 minutes. In the Round of 16, she edged Daria Kasatkina to win another thriller by the slimmest of margins.

Navarro has not been at her best but she has found a way. These are the weeks that do wonders for a player’s confidence and calm.

This will be the first tour-level meeting between Swiatek and Navarro. Their only match came nearly seven years ago at an ITF 80K that was held in Navarro’s hometown. Ranked No.412, Swiatek blitzed past Navarro, 6-2, 6-0. Both were teenagers, but Navarro was ranked outside the Top 1000.

“When I look back at my tennis career, I feel like there were not too many times when I was totally blown off the court, and I definitely was kind of blown off the court playing her,” Navarro said. “I think maybe at the time she was ranked 200 or something. We played at my home club in Charleston. I was, like, Wow, this girl is pretty good.

“Circumstances are definitely different now. I feel like I’m pretty good, too.”

Standout stat: Navarro is the second player in the Open Era to make the Australian Open quarterfinals by winning four three-setters in the first four rounds, after Jelena Dokic in 2009.

Settling in: “I think I used to look at Grand Slams as a bit more than they are, I guess, and never really felt comfortable at Grand Slams until probably US Open. I was kind of thinking after the match today that when I made quarterfinals US Open, I felt, like, wow, this is pretty insane, but now, being in quarterfinals here in Australia, kind of feels like this is where I’m supposed to be. I feel like this is what I prepared for and planned on.”

[19] Madison Keys vs. [28] Elina Svitolina

Head-to-head: Keys leads 3-2

Keys snapshot

Ranking: No.14
Best Grand Slam result: Finalist (2017 US Open)
Best Australian Open result: Two-time semifinalist (2015, 2022)

Coming off a dominant run to the title in Adelaide, Keys leads the tour with 11 wins this year and she is quietly marching herself back toward the Top 10. Ever since she returned to the tour after an injury break last spring, Keys has brought a new outlook on her game and her future in it. That positive outlook has been helped along by her husband and coach, former ATP player Bjorn Fratangelo, who has helped Keys update her equipment to yield more consistent hitting with less wear on her body.

Armed with a new racquet setup, better service motion, and — if you can believe it — a more aggressive mindset, Keys is blasting her way through the opposition. She has already tallied two Top 10 wins this year, first over Jessica Pegula in the Adelaide final and then a steady three-set win over Elena Rybakina in the Round of 16. She also notched a win over No.11 Danielle Collins in the third round.

Keys leads the head-to-head series with Svitolina but this will be a new chapter in their rivalry. The two have not faced each other since Svitolina came back from maternity leave. Since then, the Ukrainian stalwart has pivoted from a more defensive, counterpunching style to more aggressive baseline tennis.

“I think it’s kind of the evolution of all of us as we’re getting older and trying to make some changes, and if you’re not having the success, then maybe you should adapt,” Keys said. “I mean, honestly, I was so impressed. She was really going for it [against Jasmine Paolini] and really going after her shots and hitting some incredible forehands. I definitely think it’s not going to be, like, the typical matchup that we have had in the past. I’m definitely going to have to go watch some of her, because it was not vintage Svitolina playing.”

Standout stat: Since 2015, only Serena Williams (16) and Simona Halep (13) have made more Women’s Singles Grand Slam quarterfinals than Elina Svitolina (12) and Madison Keys (11).

Like a fine wine: “I don’t know if when I started I thought I’d be almost 30 and still playing at the level that I’m playing and arguably playing maybe even better than I have ever really played. It’s something that I’m definitely not taking for granted and kind of just trying to roll with, and you know, just show some of these young ones that they’ve got many, many, many years left.”

Svitolina snapshot

Ranking: No.27
Best Grand Slam result: Three-time semifinalist (2019 Wimbledon, 2019 US Open, 2023 Wimbledon)
Best Australian Open result: Three-time quarterfinalist (2018, 2019, 2025)

Remarkably, in her first tournament since undergoing foot surgery in September, Svitolina pounded her way into her first hard-court Grand Slam quarterfinal since returning from maternity leave in 2023. Her signature win came in the third round, with a 2-6, 6-4, 6-0 win over No.4 Jasmine Paolini. It was Svitolina’s first Top 5 win on a hard court in over five years.

It’s amazing what a healthy body can do. Last year, Svitolina played through a slew of injuries before finally undergoing the first surgery of her career. She regrets waiting for as long as she did.

“My first two rounds were really, really crazy in the US Open. To be fair, I don’t even know how I won them. The first match I had so much pain, I couldn’t walk the next day, so I didn’t practice at all. I had to have a procedure with the doctors to drain the cyst out of my foot. Maybe it’s stupid or maybe smart. I don’t know, to be fair.

“I just have this want to play. I want to compete. I feel like I’m playing well. I feel good on the court, so I want to continue. But sometimes my body is not allowing me.”

With an eye toward protecting her body, Svitolina opted out of playing a lead-in tournament before Melbourne. The decision was smart. She has looked fresh and sharp through her four matches. Now we’ll see if she can go power-for-power against Keys.

Standout stat: In the Open Era, Svitolina (70.3%, 102-43) holds the second-highest Women’s Singles win rate at Grand Slams of any player not to have made a Grand Slam final, only trailing Manuela Maleeva (72.0%).

Spirit of Ukraine: “This fighting spirit that I have is completely Ukrainian spirit that I try to show, that I try to represent, as well. Especially now these days are very difficult days for Ukraine. It’s almost been three years that the war is ongoing. Of course, it’s on a daily basis a very heavy rucksack that all Ukrainians have on their backs. For sure, for me to find a way to win matches, to find a way to bring a little light, a little win for Ukrainian people is something that I feel I am responsible of. To bring the fight is the least that I can do.”