Making the case for the Cincinnati semifinalists

CINCINNATI — The Cincinnati Open semifinals are set for Sunday. On one side, World No.1 Iga Swiatek and No.3 Aryna Sabalenka will add a 12th installment to their enduring rivalry (11:00 a.m. ET).

On the other, No.6 Jessica Pegula and Paula Badosa, the champions of the summer’s first two hard-court events, will pit their hot streaks against each other (1:00 p.m. ET).

Cincinnati: Scores | Draws | Order of Play

Swiatek continues to put up remarkable numbers at the WTA 1000s. With her resilient three-set win over Mirra Andreeva in the quarterfinals, she extended her WTA 1000 win streak to 15. Her 30 WTA 1000 win tally this season is already second all-time behind Serena Williams, who put up 36 in 2013. And with Beijing and Wuhan in the fall, Swiatek could end up holding that record outright.

Sabalenka is set to overtake Coco Gauff to return to No.2 on the PIF WTA Rankings after Cincinnati, making this a de facto showdown between No.1 and No.2. That’s nothing new for Swiatek and Sabalenka, who duked it out in back-to-back WTA 1000 finals during the clay season.

Who will make it to Monday’s Cincinnati final? We break down the final four.

The Case for Swiatek

Coming off her bronze medal at the Olympics, Swiatek’s expectations were non-existent in Cincinnati. Between the lack of rest, the emotional comedown from Paris, and the lightning-quick hard court conditions, the tour’s leader in match-wins and titles vowed to take it easy this week.

“I was just playing this tournament to get the feeling of the hard courts and what I can do here, so I wasn’t expecting a lot,” Swiatek said. “I would be fine, like, losing my first match. So it’s nice that I’m in the semifinals again, because for sure, this year, especially after the Olympics and going from clay to here, I wouldn’t expect it.”

How Swiatek is finding her calm after a summer of nonstop chaos

The expectations may have been low but, ever the hard-working perfectionist, Swiatek’s standards remained high. This is the first time in over a year that she’s dropped more than one set en route to the semifinals of a tournament, a considerable feat considering she made 12 semifinals over that span (including United Cup and Olympics). Yet in the face of those hiccups, Swiatek has kept her cool and clarity. That was particularly evident in her sturdy win over Mirra Andreeva in the quarterfinals.

She’ll need that clarity against Sabalenka on Sunday. Swiatek leads the head-to-head 8-3 and has won their last three matches, including twice this year in the finals of Madrid and Rome. Two of Sabalenka’s three wins have come on hard courts, but each required a full three sets.

Swiatek is three years younger than Sabalenka but the two own the same number of career hard court titles: 12. They’re both also hard-court Slam champions, with Sabalenka winning back-to-back Australian Opens and Swiatek winning 2022 US Open. That’s an impressive tally for Swiatek, and a stern reminder that she isn’t a one-surface talent.

“I think people just tend to focus on Grand Slams and they forget about the other stuff,” Swiatek said. “But honestly, I think we’re playing great on both, like both clay and hard court, and she’s playing great on grass. I’m not playing great on grass.

“So honestly, I think it’s just like a little mistake that people make in their brains when they think about us, but, it doesn’t really matter. Some surfaces will suit her better, and some is for me going to be a little bit easier. So that’s life, that’s our technique. At the end, it’s more [about the] physical, how we play tennis, and where it’s easier for us to play and where not.”

The Case for Sabalenka

Two players have quickly and quietly made their way through the Cincinnati draw without dropping a set — and both will be underdogs on Sunday. Sabalenka is one of them. After a rotator cuff injury forced her out of Wimbledon, Sabalenka is building a good head of steam heading into the US Open, where she was runner-up last year.

With straight-set wins over Elisabetta Cocciaretto, Elina Svitolina and No.10 seed Liudmila Samsonova, Sabalenka is into her first hard-court WTA 1000 semifinal since, if you can believe it, Cincinnati last year. In fact, Cincinnati has become Sabalenka’s most successful tournament. It is the only tournament at which she has made four semifinals.

Sabalenka echoed the same sentiments from Swiatek when assessing her 12th career meeting against Swiatek. There are no secrets between these two. Sabalenka will look to dictate with her baseline power and Swiatek will do everything in her power to parry and counter it with her own formidable arsenal.

As for the conventional wisdom that the quick conditions will favor her, Sabalenka was quick to dismiss it. She’s not taking anything for granted.

“I wouldn’t say that going against World No. 1, surface can really help you to get the win,” Sabalenka said. “Of course, maybe there is going to be little benefits.

“But against a player like Iga, I feel like I have to focus on myself, on my game, not expecting the surface to bring me some benefits and help me to win this match.”

Earlier this year, Sabalenka came within a point of toppling Swiatek on the Pole’s favorite surface, falling short 7-5, 4-6, 7-6(7) in the Madrid final. It was a remarkable performance from Sabalenka and one that should give her the blueprint for success on Sunday.

The Case for Pegula

The middle of the second set of her quarterfinal against Leylah Fernandez, Pegula looked like she had given all she had to give. She was playing her third match in the last 30 hours, coming after her title run last week at the National Bank Open in Toronto. She led 7-5, 4-0 but was gassed. Next thing she knew, she was in a third set.

Endurance athletes have a term for this: bonking. It would have been understandable if the 30-year-old American quietly admitted defeat then and there. But Pegula is made of tougher stuff than that.

“I’m definitely tired, like I’m just tired,” Pegula said after sealing a three-hour win over Fernandez. “It would be nice to sleep, go to bed super early and catch up on some sleep.

“I’ve had kind of a crazy schedule playing a lot of night matches in Toronto, and then the quick turnaround here, having two [matches in] a day, waiting all night, getting canceled, and then finishing late again yesterday, where I didn’t really go to bed till like midnight or 12:30.”

Pegula will finally get that early night of sleep ahead of her second straight WTA 1000 semifinal. Despite her fatigue, Pegula is playing the best tennis of her season right now and win away from matching the longest win streak of her career at nine.

“But I actually feel good, like I’m moving really well, and I feel like that’s something that’s helped me in the last few weeks. My movements I feel like improved, and I think that helps the mental side, too.”

The Case for Badosa

In March, doctors told Badosa her days in the sport were numbered. The stress fracture in her back that kept her out of the sport for six months was still causing her inordinate pain. In a last-ditch effort, she underwent cortisone treatment. Slowly but surely the pain began to subside. With that, Badosa could finally get back to the physical, brawling tennis that boosted her to World No.2 just two years ago.

“I remember the beginning of the first month, I was thinking, you cannot go to a third set because the next day you’re not going to be able to play because you’re not ready for that,” Badosa said this week. “So that helps a lot now. For example, today, I had that moment in the second set, but I remember thinking, it’s okay. You still have a third set and it doesn’t matter if you go to a battle there, because the next day you will feel okay now.

“I saw that, especially in Washington where I had tough matches. So that makes me relax a bit on the court and I can play more free.”

Badosa won her first title in over two years at the Mubadala Citi DC Open two weeks and is now into her first WTA 1000 semifinal since 2022 Indian Wells. Like her good friend Sabalenka, she has not lost a set this week. Her wins came over Peyton Stearns, Anna Kalinskaya, Yulia Putintseva and Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova.

To make her first WTA 1000 final since winning 2021 Indian Wells, Badosa will need to tally her first-ever win over Pegula and her first Top 10 win on a hard court since beating Barbora Krejcikova to win 2022 Sydney.