Can defending champ Pegula hold off the first-timers in Toronto?

When her year began in New Zealand, Amanda Anisimova was ranked No.373 among Hologic WTA players. With a win in Sunday’s National Bank Open semifinals, the 22-year-old American will find herself back in the Top 50.

This, after taking a nine-month break from tennis to restore her mental health. Such is the power and beauty of positive thinking. On Saturday, Anisimova pulled the upset of this Canadian Open with a stunning and definitive 6-4, 6-2 victory over No.2 seed Aryna Sabalenka.

Toronto: Scores | Draws | Order of Play

“I think that after the break I felt very refreshed and just had a different kind of head space, like more clarity,” Anisimova said afterward. “I just was very burnt out before I took the break, so coming back I was enjoying it a lot more. I just gained a different perspective when it comes to traveling and the training process.

“I honestly never took a break that was longer than like two weeks in my life, so I think I just needed that as a human being to just rest for once and just let my body recover.”

Anisimova is one of three Americans in the semifinals, joining No.3 seed and defending champion Jessica Pegula and No.8 seed Emma Navarro. It’s only the second time in WTA Tour 1000 history (since 2009) that three players from the same country made the semifinals.

It’s Navarro versus Anisimova in the first match (1 p.m. ET), marking the first time in a decade that two American players will face each other in the semifinals at the Canadian Open since Venus and Serena Williams. The second semifinal pits Pegula against No.14 seed Diana Shnaider at 6 p.m.

Let’s investigate the possibilities for the four semifinalists — three of whom are into their first WTA 1000 final four and 23 years old or younger.

The Case for Anisimova

A quick review of what’s transpired this week in Canada: Anisimova has defeated three Top 20 opponents in a single tournament for the first time in her career –Daria Kasatkina, Anna Kalinskaya and Sabalenka. It’s Anisimova’s first career WTA 1000 semifinal and she’s the lowest-ranked player to make a semifinal at this level in five years, after Svetlana Kuznetsova in Cincinnati. Anisimova is the fifth lowest-ranked player to make the final four since the format’s inception in 2009.

The win over Sabalenka was her first over a Top 10 player in nearly two years and, in retrospect, not hugely surprising because Anisimova has now won five of seven career matches against Sabalenka; she has more wins against the former No.1 player than anyone else. Anisimova saved all five break points she faced in the first set and won the last five games of the second set.

That is ground-breaking stuff and underlines the confidence she’s feeling right now. This semifinal will be more of the same. Anisimova and Navarro have played once, two years ago at Indian Wells, and Anisimova won in straight sets.

“I think comparing myself to how I played four years ago, it’s like a completely different person,” Anisimova said. “I think I’m physically a lot stronger now, and I anticipate the balls much more.”

The Case for Navarro

Like Anisimova, she’s never been here before — so she’s playing with house money.

Navarro, who turned 23 in May, defeated Taylor Townsend 6-3, 7-6 (5). Where does it rank to reach a first career WTA Tour 1000 semifinal?

“I would say pretty highly,” Navarro said, “not only because of the result itself, but also just because I feel like I’ve made a lot of progress in just my comfort level with being on these stages and playing in bigger matches and going further in tournaments.

“Even just a few months ago I felt still a little bit out of my league, I guess, playing in bigger tournaments and making it to later rounds, now it definitely feels a lot more comfortable.”

Fun fact that you probably didn’t know: Navarro has now won 24 hard-court matches in 2024, equaling World No.1 Iga Swiatek for the most wins on this surface this season. In addition, Navarro has won 39 matches this year, trailing only Swiatek (52) and Elena Rybakina (40). This is her fifth semifinal of the season, third-best among WTA Tour players.

Given those numbers, it’s no surprise that she’ll leave Toronto ranked inside the Top 8 on the PIF Race to the WTA Finals.

One more statistic: Navarro could become the youngest player to make the final at the Canadian Open in her first appearance at the tournament’s main draw appearance since Belinda Bencic in 2015.

The Case for Pegula

For starters, she’s the defending champion.

A year ago in Montreal, Pegula won matches over — in order, Jasmine Paolini, Coco Gauff, Iga Swiatek and, in the 6-1, 6-0 final, Samsonova. The Canadian Open is Pegula’s happy place. She’s a sparkling 15-2 (.882) at the tournament — only Monica Seles (.912) was better.

Pegula is only the fourth player in the Open Era to make four consecutive semifinals at the Canadian Open after Seles (five, 1995-1999), Gabriela Sabatini (four, 1988-1991) and Simona Halep (four, 2015-2018).

“I was probably playing better last year, but to be fair, it seems weird this week,” Pegula said. “I don’t feel like anyone’s playing, like, great tennis. It’s been kind of ugly matches. I don’t really know why.

“Every day’s kind of a new day with tennis, so you never know how you’re going to go out there and play, and you always have the next day to improve and play better. I’m just trying to work my way back up there, especially with not a lot of hard-court wins under my belt yet [this year].”

The Case for Schneider

Shnaider has been one of the hottest players on the WTA Tour and she’s continued that streak through a grinding week in Toronto.

Coming off a silver medal showing in doubles at the Paris Olympics, Shnaider stunned No.1 seed Coco Gauff in the Round of 16, yielding only five games. On Saturday, she came back to defeat No.6 Liudmila Samsonova 4-6, 6-1, 6-4. It was the only three-set match of the quarterfinal

Shnaider, 20, is the youngest semifinalist at the Canadian Open since Bianca Andreescu five years ago. She’s only the third left-hander to reach the semifinals in Toronto this century. She’s already won three titles this year, all on different surfaces, on the two lower rungs of the tour: Hua Hin (WTA 250), Bad Homburg (WTA 500) and Budapest (WTA 250). Now she’s two wins from capturing her first WTA 1000.

Since the beginning of June, no WTA Tour player has won more than Shnaider’s 18 matches. The win over Samsonova was her second consecutive over a Top 15 player, a career first.

“I think every step for me was like, ‘Wow, I’m here,'” Shnaider said. “It’s honestly a disbelief. When I was No.100, I was like, Oh, my God. I was surrounded by all of these top players, it was something new to me coming from juniors. Then top 70, top 50 this year, it was very fast, and now it’s Top 30.”

“After my first title I was like, Okay, I won, my goal is to have a second title this year. I already achieved it, but for sure I’m hungry for more.”