Will Gauff complete her run in Madrid? Sabalenka has other plans

MADRID — After an incandescent start to the season, Coco Gauff averaged exactly one win in her next five tournaments across three continents. And yet coming into the Mutua Madrid Open, she seemed optimistic about her chances.

“I always thought I was that kind of person who needed matches to bring confidence,” Gauff the day before the event began. “But a lot of my results came out of nowhere, without not as many matches doing well. So I started to believe that you can turn it around any week — but just as quickly as you go on a tear, you can also lose.

“So I’m treating each tournament with a new perspective and a new mindset.”

And then Gauff dropped the first set 6-0 in her opening match against Dayana Yastremska. Since then, with that new perspective and mindset, she’s a perfect 10-for-10.

The powers of positivity — and uncanny prescience — have delivered the No. 4 seed to her first Madrid final. On Saturday, she’ll face World No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka, a 6-3, 7-5 winner in the second semifinal over cagey No. 17 Elina Svitolina.

It’s not what many expected. Sabalenka and Iga Swiatek would have met for a third consecutive time in this final, but Gauff did not get the mass memo, sending Swiatek home with an unnervingly forceful 6-1, 6-1 victory.

Her 5-4 head-to-head advantage suggests Gauff can hang with Sabalenka, too.

Gauff, now 21, has been creating havoc on the Hologic WTA Tour for six years now, but she has the opportunity to do something special here in Madrid. A win in the final would vault her past Swiatek to No. 2 in the PIF WTA rankings. That would mark the first time in more than three years that Sabalenka and Swiatek haven’t occupied the Top 2 spots.

In a sign of her uncommon maturity, Gauff has a bigger goal.

“I’m going to be honest,” Gauff told reporters, “it’s not important to me. I mean, the only number that would mean a lot to me is 1 at this point.”

Can she do it — can Gauff replicate Mirra Andreeva’s Indian Wells feat and take down Nos. 1 and 2 in succession?

Check it out at 6:30 p.m. local time, 12:30 a.m. ET.

We make the case for each of the finalists:

Advantage, Sabalenka

This is Sabalenka’s happiest place on clay. Her only two career titles have come in La Caja Magica and now her rival and nemesis, Iga Swiatek, has been removed from the list of obstacles.

It’s her fourth Madrid final (equaling Simona Halep’s record) and a third championship would draw her even with Petra Kvitova.

How consistently great has she been in big events? Sabalenka’s win over Svitolina was her seventh consecutive in a WTA 1000 semifinal. Oh, and that ended Svitolina’s 11-match winning streak on clay.

Sometimes, statistics don’t lie. Sabalenka has saved an enormous 39 of the 50 break points against here in Madrid.

A quick glimpse of why Gauff should be concerned:

Sabalenka was serving for the first set against Svitolina when she eased up and fell into a 15-40 hole. On the first break point, she ripped an ace. She erased the second with a taking-it-early backhand winner. A third was dispatched with another big serve. Two more blasts (including another ace) got her to the changeover chair.

Perhaps the greatest example of poise under immense pressure we’ve seen this tournament was Sabalenka’s 7-6 (4), 7-6 (7) win over Marta Kostyuk in the quarterfinals. Now, she wants to improve on last year’s finals loss to Swiatek — in a third-set tiebreak.

“Super happy to be in another final,” Sabalenka said afterward. “Hopefully I can do a little bit better than last year.”

Despite falling in the Australian Open final, Sabalenka is already off to a tremendous start to the 2025 season. She’s the first player since Martina Hingis to reach six WTA-level finals in the first four months — and that was 24 years ago.

When Sabalenka was told she had advanced to four straight finals — Indian Wells, Miami, Stuttgart and Madrid — she almost sounded surprised.

“Honestly,” Sabalenka said, “I wasn’t even thinking about that, but it sounds crazy — that’s crazy that I’m playing on such a high level.

Of Gauff, she added, “We had a lot of great battles against each other, very tough ones, very close ones. I’ll just go out there and I’ll fight for every point — that’s the best preparation you can have against someone like Coco.”

Sabalenka’s now won more matches (30) than anyone on tour — why not one more?

Advantage, Gauff

Exhibit 1: Gauff’s remarkable defeat of defending champion Iga Swiatek.

This was an important match for both players. And while Swiatek acknowledged it wasn’t her best day, Gauff seized the opportunity, winning 11 straight games on the way to her first clay win over the four-time Roland Garros winner, the second this year and third overall.

She’s the second-youngest finalist in Madrid since the advent of WTA 1000s in 2009.

“Yeah, it’s pretty cool,” Gauff allowed. “I’m just, like it’s always funny when I see like “the youngest” but I’ll ride it as long as I can.

“I’m just happy to be in the final of this tournament. I’ve been coming here [five times] and I don’t think I’ve ever made it out of the fourth round.”

She’ll need to get off to another fast start against Sabalenka. Gauff has won 20 of 24 matches against WTA Top10 opponents after taking the first set, winning her past six such contests. Sabalenka, it’s worth noting, was the last Top 10 player to come back and beat her, in last year’s Wuhan semifinal — Gauff will remember that one.

She’ll also be buoyed by another piece of history — she won the only match between the two that came on clay, a Round of 16 encounter four years ago in Rome.

While her exceptional movement and backhand have been a constant, the serve and forehand have sometimes been less consistent. But so far in Madrid, she’s served well and the forehand has been rock-solid. She’ll need them both against Sabalenka.

Gauff, whose press conference came before her opponent was determined, said she didn’t have a preference.

“They’re both tough opponents. Obviously Aryna is world No. 1, so it would be cool to play her in the final and give myself that challenge.”