After more than three years in Top 2, Swiatek faces ranking threat in Madrid

MADRID — Between them, Aryna Sabalenka and Iga Swiatek have spent the past three years trading turns at the top of the Hologic WTA Tour rankings.

Sabalenka currently holds a lead of more than 3,000 points in the PIF WTA Rankings, but she’s still keeping a close eye on No. 2 Swiatek.

After Sabalenka’s 6-3, 6-4 win over Anna Blinkova on Friday, she offered a surprisingly detailed analysis of Swiatek’s harrowing three-set victory over 19-year-old Alexandra Eala the day before. Swiatek came from down a set and a break.

“Yeah, it was great match,” Sabalenka told reporters. “Honestly, I think Iga didn’t really start well, she was missing a lot. But then she played calm and started playing much better, put a lot of pressure on Eala and got the win. Nice comeback for Iga after really tough start.”

Sabalenka and Swiatek, who have met in the Mutua Madrid final the past two years — Sabalenka won in 2023, Swiatek in 2024 — would be favored to reach the final again.

“It’s kind of like really far, talking about the final,” Sabalenka said, laughing. “When you make it to the final, we can talk about that. Of course I’d like to play another final against her. It’s always kind of like leg-busters. It’s really cool to play and hopefully really cool to watch for people.”

But for Swiatek, there’s more at stake this week than just advancing in Madrid. She could leave without the title — and without her No. 2 ranking.

Swiatek has been ranked inside the Top 2 every week since March 21, 2022, but that streak is now under threat. Jessica Pegula and Coco Gauff both have chances to overtake her depending on results:

If Swiatek loses in …

Round of 32: Pegula passes with semifinals and Gauff passes with final
Round of 16: Pegula passes with semifinals and Gauff passes with final
Quarterfinals: Pegula passes with final and Gauff passes with final
Semifinals: Pegula passes with final and Gauff passes with title

If Swiatek reaches the final …

Pegula can pass her only by winning the title; Gauff is already out of the running

If Swiatek wins the title …

She secures her No. 2 ranking

If Pegula and Gauff meet for the title, the winner would climb to No. 2. For Pegula, it would mark her first appearance inside the Top 2 of the rankings. Gauff, meanwhile, most recently held the No. 2 spot on Aug. 12, 2024.

Swiatek, for her part, has kept her focus close to the ground. After her gritty opening win over Eala, she went straight back to the practice courts, working for about 30 minutes to fine-tune some of the movement and timing issues that cropped up during the match.

“I just felt like there are some stuff I need to work on, and it was best to do it right after, so the body can remember the good movement,” Swiatek said. “It’s good that I had the opportunity to do that.”

Adjusting to the altitude in Madrid, she admitted, remains a challenge.

“It’s never so easy to adjust,” she said. “The first practices were much colder. Yesterday it was hotter, so the feelings were totally different. The balls were flying a little bit out of control from my racquet, so I got the tension a little bit higher in the second set, and then it was better.”

Rather than overanalyze the match, Swiatek said her focus was simply on reinforcing positive habits.

“Sometimes when you’re not starting well it takes a little more time to find your game,” she said. “But then I did, so I’m glad.”