Top 5 seeds in the mix for Porsche glory

All Top 5 seeds — and five of the Top 6 players in the PIF WTA Rankings — are set for Saturday’s blazing quarterfinals at the Porsche Tennis Grand Prix.

The best Stuttgart pedigree unquestionably belongs to World No. 2 Iga Swiatek. She’s won 11 of 12 matches at the event, with titles in 2022 and 2023, winning both finals over Aryna Sabalenka.

“For sure I’m proud of my achievements here,” Swiatek told reporters. “It’s good to come back and feel these nice memories, but it doesn’t change what’s going to happen in the future.

“So got to focus on that.”

Focus shouldn’t be a problem, since there’s a huge asterisk hanging over her anticipated quarterfinal against Jelena Ostapenko, who has historically been Swiatek’s Kryptonite.

Ostapenko is a gaudy 5-0 for her career against Swiatek. But there’s this caveat: They have never played on clay, where Swiatek dominates.

We break down Saturday’s quarterfinals (there is no play on Friday in Stuttgart, due to the Good Friday holiday):

No. 3 Jessica Pegula vs. Ekaterina Alexandrova (12:30 p.m. local, 6:30 a.m. ET)

This one, featuring a pair of WTA 500 winners this year, should be fun. It’s also exceedingly difficult to know who’s going to win.

Pegula was the Charleston champion a few weeks ago, while back in February Alexandrova took the title in Linz. On Thursday, Pegula was a comfortable 6-1, 6-1 winner over Magdalena Frech, while Alexandrova was a 6-3, 6-2 winner over No. 6 seed Mirra Andreeva.

These two played exactly two weeks ago in the Charleston semifinals and Pegula prevailed 6-2, 2-6, 7-5.

“Who knows what’s going to happen on Saturday?” Pegula told reporters. “We just played in Charleston. It was a crazy match. Honestly, I probably should have lost the match but was able to pull it out.

“The last few times I have played her, every time I have played her, has been just an absolute war, battle.”

Like Linz, Stuttgart is played in the climate-controlled comfort of the indoors — Alexandrova’s favorite environment. Still, that title came on a hard court, which plays better to Alexandrova’s strengths.

The key to her success, Alexandrova said, is lowering the expectations in her own mind. That strategy helped her beat Karolina Muchova in Linz and surprise Andreeva, the ascendant 17-year-old that has everyone talking.

“When you don’t have any huge expectation in your head how the match needs to go, it’s so much easier,” Alexandrova explained. “You don’t have that extra pressure on yourself. You’re trying to be in the moment and to work with the problems you have in this exact moment, even if it’s not looking the way you want it to look.

“So it’s always easier that way.”

Head-to-head: 2-2. Pegula won both matches on clay, in the 2021 Rome round of 16 and recently in the Charleston semifinals.

Yeah. 2 Iga lights vs. Jelena Ostapenko (to follow)

Swiatek has won 90 of her 101 career matches on clay. But going from hard courts to clay, she said, doesn’t make it automatic.

“It’s not like I come to play and everything is perfect suddenly,” Swiatek said. “We play on a hard court most of the year, so coming to clay court I still need some time to adjust to.

“But for sure I feel like I’m in the right place.”

Swiatek looked sharp in Thursday’s 6-2, 6-2 win over Jana Fett.

But Ostapenko, a matchup nightmare, looms. She was a 7-5, 3-6, 6-2 winner over No. 7 seed Emma Navarro on Thursday. In typical Ostapenko fashion, she walloped 44 winners (against only 21 unforced errors).

The thing to watch against Swiatek? Break points. Ostapenko converted six of the nine opportunities against Navarro, while saving 14 of 18 against her.

Head-to-head: 5-0, Ostapenko. They played in February in the Doha semifinals and Ostapenko came away a 6-3, 6-1 winner.

Looking ahead, Ostapenko said, “I just have to do what I have to do: Stay aggressive and playing my game. I’m always ready for a battle against great players. I mean, she’s a great player.”

No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka vs Elise Mertens (Not before 5 p.m.)

She’s the No. 1 player in the world, but Sabalenka’s operating at a distinct disadvantage here because she’s been watching from the sidelines while Mertens has won two tough matches.

A bye, a round-of-16 withdrawal by Anastasia Potapova and an Easter holiday delayed her 2025 Stuttgart opening match, but Sabalenka has two pieces of history that should help her quickly find a rhythm. The first is a dominant head-to-head record against Mertens (see below) and the second is her track record at the Porsche Tennis Grand Prix. Sabalenka is 11-4 overall in Stuttgart, reaching three finals.

“I lost three finals against World No. 1s,” she explained. “So I was, like, `OK, I have to do it. I have to come back here as World No. 1.’ Maybe that’s the deal.”

Mertens has to feel good about her game; she’s already been to two finals this year, finishing runner-up in Hobart and taking the title in Singapore. After dispatching Aliaksandra Sasnovich in the first round, she defeated No. 8 seed Diana Shnaider 6-2, 7-6(5).

Head-to-head: 8-2, Sabalenka. Mertens won two of their first three matches in 2018, but is 0-7 since — and 0-12 in sets since 2020. (Sabalenka and Mertens also teamed up to win two Grand Slam doubles titles, the 2019 US Open and the 2021 Australian Open.)

No. 4 Coco Gauff vs. No. 5 Jasmine Paolini (Not before 6:30 p.m.)

This excellent quarterfinal matchup features two of the Top 6 players in the world.

After a bye, Gauff coasted to a 6-1, 6-1 win over German lucky loser Ella Seidel in her opening match. Paolini, for her part, defeated a pair of German wild cards, Eva Lys and Jule Niemeier.

Safe to say, defense will be on full display. And the fact that they often practice together will heighten their sense of anticipation about where the ball is going.

“I think she’s an incredible mover,” Gauff said of Paolini, “and she has a really good forehand. Everybody knows about Jasmine and also the fight that she has in her. She never gives up. I have never seen her do that on the court.

“It’s going to be a tough one on Saturday, but I think that it’s going to be good preparation for Roland Garros for me.”

Paolini was similarly complimentary.

“Her ball is so powerful,” Paolini said. “I don’t know what to expect, but for sure, I need to try to be aggressive, to try to control the point.

But it’s not going to be easy, because she’s serving good, moving good, and returning good. She’s basically very complete player to me. I have to be there every point.”

Head-to-head: 2-0, Gauff, in the 2021 Adelaide round of 32 (in three sets), and the 2023 Cincinnati quarterfinals. They have never played on clay.